Early Men's Olympic Preview

This is early Olympic preview post 2 of 4. Stay tuned for the early women's Olympic preview coming in the near future. Meanwhile, you can read my mixed doubles preview here: https://onthebuttoncurling.blogspot.com/2021/08/early-mixed-doubles-olympics-preview.html  

I'm back with another early Olympic preview! As the Paralympics and Tokyo 2020 start winding down, the focus shifts to Beijing 2022. Of course we have a wealth of important events leading up to February's ultimate showdown, but let's take a further look at the spot on the calendar that today's elite men's teams (and their fans) have been eyeing for four years.

Here is my Olympic Men's early preview/predictions:

Pictures courtesy of World Curling Federation

Men (Wednesday February 9- Saturday February 19)

Seed #1: Sweden

Niklas Edin picked up his landmark fifth world title in Calgary, backed up by Oskar Eriksson, Rasmus Wrana, and Christoffer Sundgren at lead. As stated in the Swedish Olympic Committee's announcement in early June, team Edin will be back in Beijing with big hopes of improving on 2014's bronze and 2018's surprising silver (I'm sure no one has forgotten the 'miracurl' on ice). Although Niklas competed in Vancouver 2010, will third time be the charm for him to complete his Olympic medal collection? I certainly think that could be the case.

Representative: Team Niklas Edin with Daniel Magnusson at fifth.

https://www.si.com/curling/news/olympic-curling-advantage-sweden

Seed #2: Great Britain

Okay, I hate to be foreshadowing so early, and I'd hate to jinx any of the teams, but I'm betting big on a 2021 World Championship re-match. I'm not sure many people would disagree with veteran Edin, but after this past bubble season, I hope you're not counting out Mouat either. Both have exhibited astonishing consistency with Mouat arguably flying under the radar a (wee) bit the past few seasons. Despite seemingly not being talked about too much before 2021, they've made the quarters and semis in the slams on a consistent basis and are now the four-time defending Scottish champions. Great Britain does have a selection process like Sweden. Although British Curling has seen massive improvements to their performance programme with more men's teams than ever reaching 'elite' status in the motherland of curling, it should be no question that Bruce Mouat, Grant Hardie, Bobby Lammie, and Hammy McMillan will be chosen to rep the union jack. 

Front-Runners for Selection: Team Bruce Mouat with Ross Whyte potentially in the fifth spot.

Seed #3: Switzerland

Perennial contenders out of La Suisse Team Peter De Cruz with fourth stone thrower Benoit Schwarz will have some work to do to get back to the Olympics. The foursome famously defeated Canada's Kevin Koe in the bronze medal match in Korea to deprive Canada of a four-person medal in 2018. However, lead Valentin Tanner, skip Peter De Cruz, third Sven Michel, and fourth Benoit Schwarz will have to get past now-household name team Yannick Schwaller. Although failing to qualify in many of the slams, the team out of Bern is ranked #6 in the world (ahead of De Cruz's ninth). However, they have done fairly well on the tour, including a two big start-of-the-season wins at the Baden Masters over De Cruz in the final, and at the Euro Super Series in Scotland. Because team De Cruz did not finish in the top two in Calgary, Swiss Curling will now hold a qualification event from Sep 22-25, 2021 between the reigning Swiss champions and Schwaller, supported by third Michael Brunner, Romano Meier, and Marcel Kaeufeler at the lead position. Regardless of the winner, I'm sure Switzerland will be well represented.

Trials Teams: Team Peter DeCruz and Team Yannick Schwaller

Seed #4: Russian Olympic Committee

The team from the Russian Curling Federation surprised many during the world championship. By finishing at an impressive 11-2 record and tied with Sweden for first place after the round robin stage, Sergey Glukhov has proven that he is a force to be reckoned with on the world stage. Russian women have seen huge successes and improvements in the 2010s decade, but Glukhov along with teammates Evgeny Klimov, Dmitry Mironov, and Anton Kalalb have solidified the fact that Russian men can also reach that level of success. Despite being beaten by Scotland and Switzerland in the playoffs to drop down to fourth place, the Olympics could set the stage for another Russian surprise. Russia did not qualify in the men's tournament in 2018, so this team could definitely pull off another come from behind underdog 'miracurl' (that does have a nice ring to it!) Russia did qualify on the women's side four years ago where a best of seven was contested between teams Sidorova and Moiseeva. It is unclear what the RCF's plan is at the moment, but team Glukhov is for sure a front-runner at this point in time. Another option could be Alexey Timofeev, who has skipped the nation three times at a world championship.

Front-Runners for Trials/Selection: Team Sergey Glukhov with Daniil Goriachev potentially in the fifth spot. Alexey Timofeev would also be in the running.

Seed #5: United States

Dare I say get ready for another 'miracurl' on ice! The defending gold medallists and fifth place team at 2021's Worlds will be another contender. It goes without saying that John Shuster, Chris Plys, Matt Hamilton, and John Landsteiner can be inconsistent at times, but they do seem to pick up steam at the right moment (Exhibit A: 2018). Although their 5th place result in Calgary was a bit disappointing for them, they did end the round robin in third position with a 10-3 track record. The USCA will be holding their Olympic Trials from November 12-21, 2021 in Omaha, Nebraska with Shuster having already qualified. Two other teams have also booked their spot, team Young Bucks Korey Dropkin and 2021 US National champion team Jed Brundige. Another serious contender could be veteran Rich Ruohonen although I'm currently banking on a Shuster-Dropkin final. The US will be in good hands for the Olympics, but needs to pick up more momentum pre-February to have a chance at another miracurl.

Front-Runners for Trials: Team John Shuster

Top Teams for Trials: Teams Korey Dropkin, Jed Brundige, Rich Ruohonen.

Seed #6: Canada

Canada at number six? Don't fear Canada, there is absolutely no need to hit the panic button. Sure, the world has even more deserving teams than ever to contest the Olympics, but no country has the depth like Canada. I think the phrase "catching up to Canada" is somewhat outdated, but chances are that if Canada's number three ranked team played the number three ranked team from every other major curling nation, Canada would no doubt be the front-runner in almost every situation. Some people have brought up that being a rookie in a high stakes international event with many equally talented, but more experienced athletes may not be ideal, Canada will always be in good hands. Besides, almost every top-ranked team in the country now has major international experience under their belt with the addition of Bottcher and Einarson this year. We can no longer expect the great white north to medal in absolutely every bonspiel, but with so many elite teams, someone has to win and someone has to lose. It's as simple as that. Regardless, I do expect Canada to perform well.

Front Runners for Trials: Teams Brendan Bottcher, Brad Jacobs, Brad Gushue, Kevin Koe, John Epping

Top Teams for Trials (all must qualify first): Teams Matt Dunstone, Glenn Howard, Mike McEwen 

Host Country: China

It's fair to say that China has experienced a decline in performance for both men and women, but more so for their men's program. The nation has experienced a wealth of young athletes able to compete on the world stage, but many seem to get burnt out much too fast. This has caused the country to often go back to square one with the lack of experience and talent progression from their athletes. Playing with different teammates almost every year doesn't exactly help either. South Korea's somewhat lack of depth didn't stop their teams from pushing the boundaries in 2018. China could do the same in 2022. After placing in last this past worlds, China needs to step up their game to have a chance to medal (and hopefully spur some excitement for the sport).

Front Runners for Selection: China will undergo a selection process and hand pick the athletes who will compete in Beijing. This means that the team could comprise of any member in their elite program so we'll need to watch out for that. But for all intents and purposes, world reps Team Zou Qiang will be front-runners

Those are the seven nations qualified thus far for the Men's tournament at Beijing 2022. Keep an eye out for another post dedicated to a preview/predictions for the Women's tournament and for the Olympic Qualification Events for all three disciplines.

Early Ranking Prediction w/ Countries Already Qualified:

🥇🥈Sweden/Great Britain

🥉Canada

 4  Switzerland

 5  United States

 6  Russian Olympic Committee

 7  China

 

Yes, I am predicting a re-match of Edin and Mouat for gold. Who will win? I really don't know. Edin took gold in the recent world final, but lost two times to Mouat in the two grand slams immediately following the world championship. Of course most people agree that they would rather win the world gold, but I think this one is still a toss-up.

I'll also predict that Canada will get back into the medal column this time around in a closely contested game with the Swiss. The American and Russian teams will do fairly well, but not quite good enough to break into the playoffs. China's men could also receive a host nation boost, but only enough to place them higher than some of the last-chance qualifier teams. 

I also won't forget that many other deserving teams like Norway and Italy could very well contend for a playoff spot despite not qualifying just yet. But we'll leave that matter for later for an Olympic Qualification preview 😉

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